CSK and DC are assured qualification, though their final standings are yet to be decided. There are two more games that will be played on Sunday and with three of the four teams which are tied on 10 points in action on Sunday, it will be interesting to see how things shape up after these two matches are completed.
Shankar Raghuraman of TOI has done the calculations to show the probabilities of each team qualifying after Saturday’s games, assuming that in any given match the chances of winning or losing are 50-50.
The analysis also ignores net run rates, since, with two to three games left for each team, current NRRs could change quite a bit.
With 9 games left in the group stage almost every game is going to be a make or break game – not just for those playing it but for other teams in the league too. MI’s loss on Saturday, for instance, has helped several teams while denting its own chances.
Here’s how the probabilities of making the play-offs stand on Sunday so far:
1) CSK’s loss on Saturday does not change the fact that it is sure to make the play-offs. Its chances of finishing in the top two slots in terms of points remain as high as 97%.
2) Like CSK, DC was also sure to qualify even before Saturday’s games, but the win against MI means their chances of finishing in the top two in terms of points has now reached nearly 94%.
3) KKR’s loss on Friday and MI’s loss on Saturday mean that third placed RCB is now almost sure to qualify, with tied third being the lowest they can finish. But there are 24 scenarios in which they can tie for the third spot with more than one other team, which means there is a less than 5% chance they’ll have to depend on net run rate to progress beyond the group stage. They have a little better than one in three chance of finishing in the top two in terms of points.
4) KKR remain in fourth spot and MI’s loss means their chances of finishing among the top four in terms of points has risen to nearly 44%. The best they can hope for is a tied third spot.
5) MI’s loss has also boosted the hopes of PBKS, which now have a nearly 41% chance of being among the top four in terms of points. Like KKR, the best they can hope for is tied third spot.
6) RR is currently sixth, but, like KKR, has a 44% chance of ending up among the top four slots in terms of points after Saturday’s impressive win against CSK. Another team that can at best tie for third spot.
7) MI have slipped to seventh spot on the table, but have a 44% chance of finishing among the top four on points like KKR and RR.
8) Two out of CSK, DC and RCB will certainly occupy the top two slots with the others out of the running for these spots. That leaves the other four teams in the running battling it out with one of these three (CSK, DC, RCB) for the remaining two slots.
How are we arriving at these probabilities?
The process starts with listing out every possible scenario that remains in terms of combination of individual match outcomes. As of Sunday morning, with 9 games left to play, that means 512 (two possibilities for the first game, each of which has two for the next game and so on, yielding a total of 2 raised to the power 9 or 512). We then look at what each scenario means in terms of the final points tally for each team and what rank that puts them at (ignoring NRR, which cannot be forecast in advance). The probabilities for each team are then calculated by dividing the number of scenarios in which it finishes in the top four by the total number of possible scenarios, as of now 512, and multiplying by 100.
Teams that are on the same number of points can have different probabilities because of what matches they have left and also how matches involving other teams affect their final placing.
What were the playoff possibilities at the end of October 1? Find out HERE.